The UK’s push for electric vehicles (EVs) is facing a major challenge. According to new data from Cox Automotive and Regit, manufacturers are expected to miss the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate by over 345,000 units by 2028. With consumer hesitation, rising costs, and policy shifts, is the EV transition at risk of slowing down?
Are EV Targets Too Ambitious?
The UK government’s ZEV mandate requires 52% of new car sales to be fully electric by 2028. However, forecasts suggest that at the current rate of adoption, only 36% of new car registrations will be EVs, falling short by over 345,000 vehicles.
The ZEV mandate required 22% of all new car sales and 10% of all new vans registered in 2024 to be zero emission. This year, it increases to 28% of all new car sales and 16% of all new van sales.
The UK’s Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate has played a key role in boosting electric vehicle (EV) sales in 2024. After two years of stagnation at around 16.5%, the introduction of the mandate has driven a noticeable increase in EV adoption.
Despite initial concerns from car manufacturers about meeting the 2024 ZEV targets, industry data suggests that compliance has largely been achieved. EV sales accounted for 19.6% of new car registrations in 2024, falling short of the 22% target but still exceeding the 18% required for compliance when accounting for flexibilities by the automotive sector.
This growth highlights the impact of regulatory measures in accelerating EV adoption, even as manufacturers navigate the challenges of transitioning to zero-emission vehicles.
The UK has overtaken Germany in 2024 to become Europe’s largest market for pure electric vehicles (BEVs), marking a significant milestone in EV adoption in the UK. This achievement highlights strong progress, showing that despite concerns over meeting ZEV mandate, the UK already outperforms other major European markets. While challenges remain, this leadership position suggests that the transition is well underway, reinforcing confidence in the UK’s ability to meet its long-term electrification goals.
This growth appears to be driven by a combination of the ZEV mandate and increasing consumer demand. Despite persistent challenges related to infrastructure, affordability, and available incentives, these numbers highlight a steady and continued rise in EV adoption.
However, many manufacturers are facing increasing pressure as the ZEV mandate targets rise each year, with financial penalties for those who fail to comply. Notably, Toyota, Ford, and Mazda did not meet the 2024 target through direct EV sales alone. Instead, they supplemented their EV sales and emissions reductions by either borrowing credits from future years or purchasing them from over-compliant manufacturers.
Current Concerns About Meeting Future ZEV Targets Figures from SMMT:
- Price Concerns – 69% of drivers say they would not pay more for an EV than a petrol or diesel car, yet EVs remain 12% more expensive on average.
- Charging Infrastructure – Public charging access and range anxiety continue to be major concerns.
- Government Incentives – 86% of motorists believe stronger financial incentives are needed to make EVs a viable option.
New EV Tax Burdens Coming in 2025
One of the biggest changes will come into effect on April 1, 2025, when EVs lose their tax exemptions:
- VED (Vehicle Excise Duty) will rise from £0 to £195 per year. £10 VED for first year of a brand-new EV.
- Luxury Car Tax will apply to EVs over £40,000, adding another £425 per year for five years, bringing the total to £620 annually for some owners.
It will be interesting to see whether this impacts the current trend of new EV sales in the UK. With key incentives no longer in place, will this discourage potential buyers from making the switch to electric vehicles? Or will the momentum behind EV adoption continue despite the rising costs?
Should the Government Offer More Support?
From April 1, 2025, EV owners will no longer benefit from VED exemptions or luxury car tax breaks, making the cost of ownership higher than before.
As some dealers call for lower ZEV targets, others argue that the government should take action to keep EV adoption on track. Possible solutions include:
✔️ New purchase subsidies to offset the higher upfront cost of EVs.
✔️ More funding for charging infrastructure to make public charging easier and faster.
✔️ Extended tax incentives to ensure EVs remain a cost-effective alternative.
With the removal of key incentives and the lack of affordability when it comes to electric vehicles, will EV adoption slow down? Or will the push toward electrification remain strong despite these challenges?